{"hq_id":"hq-c-ino-000001","name":"Lead (Pb)","context":"human_adult","timestamp":"2026-09-10T11:54:15.861Z","risk_level":"high","risk_profile":{"magnitude":{"mean":0.685841,"weightedMean":0.685841,"std_dev":0.048438,"confidence_interval_95":[0.625,0.75],"source_positions":[{"source":"US EPA","year":2004,"value":0.75,"weight":0.41},{"source":"IARC","year":2006,"value":0.7,"weight":0.41},{"source":"EPA CTX / NTP RoC","year":2021,"value":0.65,"weight":0.30176},{"source":"HQ_DIRECT","year":2026,"value":0.625,"weight":0.35}]},"confidence":{"mean":0.743901,"weightedMean":0.743901,"std_dev":0.136238,"confidence_interval_95":[0.5,0.82],"source_positions":[{"source":"HQ_DIRECT","year":2026,"value":0.5,"weight":0.35},{"source":"IARC","year":2006,"value":0.82,"weight":0.41},{"source":"US EPA","year":2004,"value":0.82,"weight":0.41},{"source":"EPA CTX / NTP RoC","year":2021,"value":0.82,"weight":0.30176}]},"recency":{"mean":0.591841,"weightedMean":0.591841,"std_dev":0.233646,"confidence_interval_95":[0.368,1],"source_positions":[{"source":"HQ_DIRECT","year":2026,"value":1,"weight":0.35},{"source":"IARC","year":2006,"value":0.5,"weight":0.41},{"source":"US EPA","year":2004,"value":0.5,"weight":0.41},{"source":"EPA CTX / NTP RoC","year":2021,"value":0.368,"weight":0.30176}]},"methodology":{"mean":0.928657,"weightedMean":0.928657,"std_dev":0.127723,"confidence_interval_95":[0.7,1],"source_positions":[{"source":"HQ_DIRECT","year":2026,"value":0.7,"weight":0.35},{"source":"IARC","year":2006,"value":1,"weight":0.41},{"source":"US EPA","year":2004,"value":1,"weight":0.41},{"source":"EPA CTX / NTP RoC","year":2021,"value":1,"weight":0.30176}]},"specificity":{"mean":0.790428,"weightedMean":0.790428,"std_dev":0.072376,"confidence_interval_95":[0.75,0.92],"source_positions":[{"source":"HQ_DIRECT","year":2026,"value":0.92,"weight":0.35},{"source":"IARC","year":2006,"value":0.75,"weight":0.41},{"source":"US EPA","year":2004,"value":0.75,"weight":0.41},{"source":"EPA CTX / NTP RoC","year":2021,"value":0.75,"weight":0.30176}]},"consensus":{"exists":false,"strength":0.67708,"disagreement_magnitude":0.308845,"warning":null}},"interpretation":{"summary":"Regulatory agencies show substantial disagreement. US EPA classifies as higher risk (75th percentile), while HQ_DIRECT concludes lower risk (63th percentile).","confidence_note":"Moderate-quality evidence base. Disagreement reflects methodological and interpretive differences, not data quality issues.","context_note":"Bone lead releases endogenously during aging, weight loss, and osteoporosis. Cognitive decline, memory impairment, and mood disorders documented at low levels.","warning":null},"sources":[{"id":"src_001","type":"cdc","title":"CDC - Lead Poisoning Prevention","url":"https://www.cdc.gov/lead-prevention/"},{"id":"src_002","type":"who","title":"WHO - Lead Poisoning Fact Sheet","year":2024,"url":"https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/lead-poisoning-and-health"},{"id":"src_003","type":"ihme","title":"IHME Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 - Lead Exposure","url":"https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2021-lead-exposure-estimates-1990-2021"},{"id":"src_004","type":"journal","title":"Angrand et al. Relation of blood lead levels and lead in gasoline: an updated systematic review","year":2022,"url":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-022-00936-x"},{"id":"src_005","type":"journal","title":"Silbergeld et al. Lead and osteoporosis: mobilization of lead from bone in postmenopausal women","year":1988,"url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3168967/"},{"id":"src_006","type":"vet","title":"Merck Veterinary Manual - Lead Poisoning","url":"https://www.merckvetmanual.com/toxicology/lead-poisoning"},{"id":"src_007","type":"cdc","title":"ATSDR - Toxicological Profile for Lead","url":"https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp13.pdf"},{"id":"src_008","type":"journal","title":"Reuben et al. Association of Childhood Lead Exposure With Adult Personality Traits and Lifelong Mental Health","year":2019,"url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30673063/"},{"id":"src_009","type":"journal","title":"Kovarik. Charles F. Kettering and the 1921 discovery of tetraethyl lead","url":"https://billkovarik.com/bio/cabi/ket-tel/"},{"id":"src_010","type":"journal","title":"McFarland et al. Half of US population exposed to adverse lead levels in early childhood","year":2022,"url":"https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118631119"},{"id":"src_011","type":"journal","title":"Reuben A. Childhood Lead Exposure and Adult Neurodegenerative Disease. Journal of Alzheimer's Disease (2018) -- corrected author attribution (the record misattributed this to \"Bellinger\"; David Bellinger is thanked only for correspondence/review in the acknowledgments, not an author)","year":2018,"url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6454899/"},{"id":"src_012","type":"journal","title":"The Lancet Planetary Health - Global health burden and cost of lead exposure","year":2023,"url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00166-3"}],"sources_scope":"record","warnings":["year_inferred:EPA CTX / NTP RoC:2021","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Genetox:genotoxicity: negative (ames: none, 1 positive / 2","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Genetox:genotoxicity: negative (ames: none, 1 positive / 2","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Skin-Eye:skin irritation: in vivo: studies indicate no sign","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Skin-Eye:eye irritation: in vivo: studies indicate no signi","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Skin-Eye:skin sensitisation: in vivo (non-llna): not likely"],"meta":{"synthesis_version":"1.1.0","config_version":"1.1.0","n_sources":4,"db_version":44,"warnings":["year_inferred:EPA CTX / NTP RoC:2021","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Genetox:genotoxicity: negative (ames: none, 1 positive / 2","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Genetox:genotoxicity: negative (ames: none, 1 positive / 2","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Skin-Eye:skin irritation: in vivo: studies indicate no sign","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Skin-Eye:eye irritation: in vivo: studies indicate no signi","unmapped_classification:EPA CTX / Skin-Eye:skin sensitisation: in vivo (non-llna): not likely"]},"schema":"synthesis","_notice":"ALETHEIA output is reference data, not professional advice. Not a substitute for primary agency sources or qualified professionals. See https://aletheia.holisticquality.io/disclaimer.","_disclaimer_url":"https://aletheia.holisticquality.io/disclaimer","available_contexts":["human_adult","human_child","human_pregnant","human_elderly","dog","cat","human_teen","human_infant","exposure_dermal","exposure_inhalation","exposure_ingestion","exposure_ocular","occupational_exposure"]}